May 1, 2016
With many large multifamily assets trading at cap rates on par with and below 5%, there are adequate reasons to be concerned. If interest rates rise, cap rates will rise and thus lead to lower values. This risk is logical and certainly, has long-term implications. However, in the short term, the spread between multifamily cap rates and long-term bonds rates is almost 300 basis points in many instances and shows little risk or similar form compared to the past bubble. Investors are relying on sustained NOI growth rates of above 3% to counter any negative effects of long-term interest rate moves; given the demographic forces, this is not unrealistic. It can be rationally argued that 2016 and 2017 may be the time to sell and raise liquidity.